Decision Lab
Transparent calculators for analytics thinking.
These tools make core decision concepts inspectable. They are educational utilities, not product predictions or financial advice, and they do not use private Seqube model parameters.
EXPECTED VALUE
Expected value calculator
Estimate the average outcome implied by a probability, upside and downside.
Expected value—
EV = p × gain − (1 − p) × loss
RETURN ON INVESTMENT
ROI calculator
Compare final value with the cost required to produce it.
Return on investment—
ROI = (final value − cost) ÷ cost × 100
PROBABILITY CALIBRATION
Brier score calculator
Measure squared error between a probability forecast and a binary observed outcome. Lower is better.
Brier score—
Brier = (forecast probability − outcome)²
NORMALISED PROBABILITY
Two-outcome margin normaliser
Convert two decimal prices into raw implied probabilities and normalise away their combined margin.
Normalised probability A / B—
normalised p = (1 / decimal value) ÷ sum of implied probabilities
These calculators are general analytical tools. They do not reproduce Seqube's proprietary model logic, do not constitute a prediction, and should not be treated as financial or wagering advice.
